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Bookmaker’s Playoff Betting Analysis

Below is Lewless’ analysis of each game and how the betting percentages at the Louisiana sportsbooks he manages compare to national percentages. Lewless also worked for years at Las Vegas casino sportsbooks.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs:“The line is KC -8.5, and the over/under is 41.5. Surprisingly, this year it has been the Chiefs defense that has been the catalyst for their won-loss record, and some will say some timely officiating also played a role. Because of the point spread, the percentages vary nationally, with some as high as 60% favoring the Texans plus the points, whle 61% are on the over. Remember, the public generally sides with the over. For us at Margaritaville, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and the closeness of Houston to Louisiana always boosts our liability up some. We are at 68% on Houston and 63% on the over.”

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions: “The line is Detroit -9.5 and the total over/under is 56. The national take is: Take the points at a clip of 60% on the Commanders, and national bettors are taking the total over to the tune of 59%. For us in the South, any time a player from LSU is a factor we are always heavy on that side. So right now we are at 64% on Washington plus the points and about 60% on the total over. I do expect some moneyline play to come in for us because of Daniels.”

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles:“The line is Philly -6, and a total of 44 points. The country is split 50/50 thus far on the spread but is leaning to over 44 at a clip of 60%. Our bettors often like running quarterbacks rather than a pocket passer who will likely give a team more opportunities by staying put. This is no exception, as we are strong on Philly so far at 61%, which is close to the national average, also at 61%.”

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills:“The road-team Ravens are -1, and the total is 51.5. Baltimore is over-hyped, as they lost five games during the season. The Ravens are where they are because of running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson, but Jackson's red-zone shortcomings have to be considered. Here, we are seeing bets on the Ravens at about 59%, which puts us almost in line with bettors nationally on the total and at 52% on the over.”

Final analysis:“My take is that Kansas City, Detroit, Los Angeles and Buffalo will advance.”

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